Short selling

Hi everybody.

I followed yesterday an interesting courses on Khan Academy on short selling. Here is the video. The main idea and meaning of short selling is :

When you think that the price of one share is going to decrease …

1. You rent a share through a broker. This broker has this share between it has plenty of clients and among them, there are clients who the very share on which you want to bet and to short sells.

2. You sell it immediately right away, before the price actually goes down.

3. You wait until the price is low

4. And then you cover your position buying this same share at a low price.


Basic shorting: Basic Shorting


Shorting stock: What does it mean to short a stock?


Shorting stock 2: More on the mechanics of shorting stock.

I have been trading through the online French bank “Boursorama” for a few months and I am currently wondering whether S.R.D. is the same thing as Short Sells. I may be the same principles but I am not sure enough.

And then you will enjoy below a video on the impact of short selling in stock markets in general. Are they making markets safer or not ?


Is short selling bad?: A discussion of the virtues and/or vices of short selling.

Preparing for an economic collapse in october 2015

Voici une ancienne publication d’international man et Doug Casey, que je cite régulièrement et que je publie avec un mois de retard suite aux récents développements qui ont fait l’objet de ma publication précédente avec l’intervention de Paul Jorion sur BFM business et la nouvelle baisse des marchés français.

Preparing for a Potential Economic Collapse in October

by Jeff Thomas | August 31, 2015

There’s no question that the world economy has been shaky at best since the crash of 2008.

Yet, politicians, central banks, et al., have, since then, regularly announced that “things are picking up.” One year, we hear an announcement of “green shoots.” The next year, we hear an announcement of “shovel-ready jobs.”

And yet, year after year, we witness the continued economic slump. Few dare call it a depression, but, if a depression can be defined as “a period of time in which most people’s standard of living drops significantly,” a depression it is.

Many people are surprised that no amount of stimulus and low interest rates have resulted in creating more jobs or more productivity. Were they a bit more cognizant of the simple, understandable principles of classical economics (as opposed to the complex theoretical principles of Keynesian invention), they’d recognise that, when debt reaches the level that it cannot be repaid, a major re-set of some sort must take place.

The major economies of the world have reached and exceeded that point and the debt problem is no mere anomaly that can be papered over. It is, instead,systemic. There must be a major forgiveness of debt, a default, or aneconomic collapse, or some combination of the three.

And so, those who recognise the inevitability of such an event have been storing their nuts away in preparation for an economic winter.

Those of us who warned of the 2008 crash in advance had been regarded as economic “Chicken Littles.” After the crash, we were largely resented as having made a “lucky guess.” Following that time, a moderate amount of credence has been allowed us, as we’ve recommended investments in real estate andprecious metals (outside of those jurisdictions that are most at risk). However, since the Great Gold Correction (2011-2015), that begrudging credence has worn away and been replaced with renewed contempt.

To the naysayers, the 2001-2011 gold boom has been relegated to the investment dustbin and, to most punters, gold is clearly “over.”

Just as importantly, the most significant events of the “Greater Depression” that we had been predicting have clearly not yet come to pass. They’re still ahead of us. And, in this, we must confess that those of us who made this prediction did unquestionably believe that it would have taken place by now. We were wrong.

Or at least we were wrong on the timing, but most of us still believe, more than ever, in the inevitability of a collapse (again, this is true because the problem issystemic, not symptomatic).

All of the above is a preface of the coming of October, a month which, historically, has seen more than its fair share of negative economic events.

This time around, there are warning signs aplenty that, sometime around October of this year, we shall see a number of black swans on the wing, headed our way.

The greatest of these is that, once every five years, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) renews its membership structure (SDR quota, governors, and voting power.) This is significantly in question this year, as China vies for a larger chair at the table.

Although China surpassed the US in 2014 as the world’s largest manufacturing economy, it still has less than one-quarter of the voting power of the US and even has less than France or Germany. To say the IMF has been dragging its feet on a rebalancing of IMF member voting would be an understatement.

In fairness, China should expect to be allotted significantly greater voting power in October. But we are discussing the IMF, which has never been known for fairness. It has, indeed, been infamous for its duplicity and self-serving inclinations (having been created at Bretton Woods in 1944 to allow the US hegemony over the world economy, its primary purpose is to assure US dominance).

Still, it would be difficult to imagine how the IMF could avoid a shift in its voting (diminishing the US and increasing China). Anything the IMF did at this point to derail the re-balance would be highly suspect.

And yet, that’s exactly what the IMF has done. It has publicly questioned whether 2015 is the right year for the review. However, even it is worried enough about its presumptuousness that, rather than announce a delay, it has announced the consideration of a delay. It has run the possible delay up the flagpole to see whether it will fly or be torn down.

Clearly the IMF feels it’s on shaky ground with its proposal. And it should be. In recent years, it has arrogantly pushed China away from the IMF table time after time, so the Chinese have taken matters into their own hands. They’ve created their own international development bank, their own worldwide cable communication system, and even their own SWIFT system.

Very soon, they’ll have the ability to run their own worldwide economic system,independent of the US/EU/IMF system. Early on, many of the world’s governments recognised the future opportunities that this would bring to the world. First, Russia and the countries of Southeast Asia signed on, then South America, Africa, and, finally, some EU countries reached agreements with China.

The IMF is in a jam, no member country more so than the US. If, in October, it allows China greater voting power, it will cast in stone China’s increased economic influence over the world. However, if the IMF chooses to put off China another year, China may move ahead with its own economic system.

Buying Time

There can be no doubt that the IMF is hoping to buy time. The question is whether it merely wishes to buy time to delay the inevitable, or whether it feels it has a card up its sleeve that it might be able to play, should it gain another year.

If the US is arrogant (as it generally is), it’ll employ its customary bravado and, in so doing, may well cause the Chinese to play hardball and dump some of their US Treasuries and/or dollars.

In considering the above, the US/IMF may feel that China is in the throes of a major correction at present and cannot retaliate without feeling the pain itself. They’d be correct. And so, the Chinese, known for being patient and choosing their moment carefully, may choose to swallow the IMF delay quietly, then, when they’ve dumped some of their baggage and possibly rebounded in 2016, make an even firmer stand than they could now make. For that reason, US arrogance now would create a very short-lived gain, and a very foolish one.

So, what does this mean to the investor? It suggests that, once again in history, October promises to be a month when great economic change may well take place. When dramatic change looms, it’s best to keep your powder dry, whilst keeping an eye open for opportunities as soon as events reveal the future. Until then, nut–gathering serves to provide an insurance policy against unpleasant economic surprises.

Baisse de la bourse française importante, une nouvelle crise ?

Les marchés et notamment la bourse française ont encore baissé aujourd’hui. Je suis trois valeurs, une banque d’investissement notamment, natixis, et la valorisation récente à 7,74 a baissé à mon niveau d’entrée, mais pas en dessous. Il n’est donc pas intéressant d’acheter pour faire baisser le prix de revient moyen.

Je me suis récemment exprimé à plusieurs reprises sur mes craintes pour l’économie mondiale suite au mini krack lié à la Chine. Il est possible et annoncé par le think tank de Doug Casey ici et que l’on affronte en septembre ou plus vraisemblablement en octobre une crise nouvelle. Je publie aujourd’hui une interview d’un économiste que je connais pour ses interventions dans le reportage d’arte “noire finance” qui est disponible sur mon site ici pour la première partie et ici pour la deuxième partie. Il s’agit de Paul Jorion.

 

 

 

 

Décision de la fed dans quelques minutes

La banque centrale américaine, la FED, va décider de la hausse ou non des taux dans quelques minutes. J’ai hésité à publier sur ce sujet car la fréquence limitée de mes publications et mon traitement de fond des informations m’empêchent probablement de traiter et relayer les informations à chaud. Il existe plein de médias pour ce faire. Je rappelle cependant que j’avais indiquer les inquiétudes d’un certain nombre d’acteurs sur cette hausse des taux, notamment la directrice du FMI, la française Christine Lagarde, mais aussi les analystes du think tank Doug Casey, ou encore d’autres publications qui m’ont été transmise par un ami suisse.

SDR valuation of the IMF are renewed every 5 years, they will soon be again.

I recently posted about new SDR valuation within the IMF. China will increase its influence on the internal governance of the IMF, right after the new valuation of SDR (a benchmark based on currencies relative importance throughout the world and quantified in USD) awaited for next month, october 2015.

According to Doug Casey research think tank, it will be major trigger of a global financial U-Turn.

You can find the very publication of INTERNATIONAL MAN about this up-coming major U-Turn there on a post I publicized recently.

Anyone can subscribe to all newsletter from the IMF. I did so.

There you will find the email I got recently, and I regularly checked on my mailbox.

New item in your series of interest:

SDR Valuation as of Sep 14, 2015 Disclaimer: The International Monetary Fund makes no warranties, express or implied, regarding these tables or the performance of this site. The Fund shall not be liable for any losses or damages incurred in connection with this site.

http://www.imf.org/external/np/fin/data/rms_sdrv.aspx?Month=09&Day=14&Year=2015&submit=Submit

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TAKE A LOOK:

Subscribe to live webcast notifications: https://www.imf.org/external/cntpst/index.aspx

IMF Social Media Hub: http://www.imf.org/external/social.htm

The IMF’s global economy blog: http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/

IMF news and interviews: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx

F&D on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/FinanceandDevelopment

China will normally get an increasing power. Doug Casey research think is thinking that it will be one of the most important trigger of an up-coming financial crisis in october 2015. We’ll see then.

Please find below an extract of their publication available here.

This time around, there are warning signs aplenty that, sometime around October of this year, we shall see a number of black swans on the wing, headed our way.

The greatest of these is that, once every five years, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) renews its membership structure (SDR quota, governors, and voting power.) This is significantly in question this year, as China vies for a larger chair at the table.

Although China surpassed the US in 2014 as the world’s largest manufacturing economy, it still has less than one-quarter of the voting power of the US and even has less than France or Germany. To say the IMF has been dragging its feet on a rebalancing of IMF member voting would be an understatement.

In fairness, China should expect to be allotted significantly greater voting power in October. But we are discussing the IMF, which has never been known for fairness. It has, indeed, been infamous for its duplicity and self-serving inclinations (having been created at Bretton Woods in 1944 to allow the US hegemony over the world economy, its primary purpose is to assure US dominance).

Still, it would be difficult to imagine how the IMF could avoid a shift in its voting (diminishing the US and increasing China). Anything the IMF did at this point to derail the re-balance would be highly suspect.

This is just a small extract from the whole publication available here.

A presentation of international man is available here.